The chart above presents our China Investment Strategy team’s quarterly balance of payments-based capital flow measure (adjusted for cross-border capital flow) with our newly calculated monthly proxy. Divergences between…
We continue to expect copper prices to increase in the near term, as China’s credit cycle bottoms and DM central banks soften their monetary-policy stance. Fiscal and monetary stimulus in China also will be supportive of base metals…
Highlights Analysis on Indonesia is available below. EM financial markets have diverged from the global growth indicators they have historically correlated with. This raises doubts about the sustainability of this rally. In China,…
Regarding the European luxury goods sector, we often get following question: is it, just like the basic resources sector, a direct play on China’s growth cycle? The answer is no. Recently, the connection between the…
Highlights Please note that analysis on India is published below. Even if the recent upturn in the Chinese credit impulse is sustained, there will likely still be a six- to nine-month lag between the impulse’s trough and the…
Highlights Equities can continue to outperform bonds for a few months longer. The pro-cyclical equity sector stance that has worked well since last October can also continue for a few months longer. Overweight pro-cyclical Sweden…
China’s total social financing numbers for January came in at CNY 4.6 trillion, a stunning number even when taking into account the seasonal strength evident every January. In fact, in a recent webcast, our geopolitical…
Highlights Our leading indicator for China’s “old economy” remains weak, and the beneficial trade front-running effect that has supported some of China’s macro data over the past year is beginning to wane. Our…