Highlights Several economic and financial market indicators point to a budding downtrend in Chinese capital spending and its industrial sector. The recent underperformance of global mining, chemicals and machinery/industrials…

Special Report

Feature The existence of 'mini-cycles' in economic and financial variables is an empirical fact. We encourage readers to plot for themselves the change in global bank credit flows, the global bond yield, global inflation, and…

Special Report

Highlights The financial system / banks cannot and do not lend out or intermediate national or households "savings". In any economy, new money/new purchasing power is originated by commercial banks "out of thin air…

Highlights China stands out as the most likely candidate to send negative shock waves through EM and commodities in 2018. Granted the ongoing policy tightening in China will likely dampen money growth further, the only way mainland…

Highlights The current mini-upswing in the global mini-cycle started in May and is likely to end around January. On a 6-month horizon, lean against the rally in industrial metals. Equity investors should underweight Basic Resources,…

Highlights The private sectors in Brazil, Russia and India have indeed experienced some deleveraging. Yet in China, deleveraging has not even begun. In fact, the money and credit excesses have become ever larger in the past two years…

Special Report

Highlights Three factors point to stable or narrower USD cross-currency basis swap spreads: the improving health of global banks, the end of the adjustment to the regulatory change affecting prime-money market funds, and the relaxation…

Special Report

Highlights Three factors point to stable or narrower USD cross-currency basis swap spreads: the improving health of global banks, the end of the adjustment to the regulatory change affecting prime-money market funds, and the relaxation…

Please note that in addition to today's abbreviated Weekly Bulletin, we are also publishing a Special Report on Argentina. Feature Regarding recent financial market dynamics, it appears that the high-yielding EM currencies are…

Special Report

One of BCA's long-standing clients, Ms. Mea, recently paid us a visit at our Montreal office. Ms. Mea is an experienced and successful investor who has been reading different BCA products for many years. She noted that over the years…