Highlights Slowing global money growth, export orders, and a downgrade in earnings revisions of cyclical relative to defensive equities points to a mild slowdown in non-U.S. growth. This slowdown is not worrisome, but could become so…

Special Report

Liquidity is the lifeblood of the economy and financial markets, but it is a slippery concept that means different things to different people. Liquidity falls into four categories: monetary, balance sheet, financial market transaction…

Highlights We highlighted last month that investors should remain slightly overweight risk assets, but should also hold safe havens given the preponderance of risks. Some of the risks have since faded and the sweet spot for equities is…

Highlights Industrial metals prices are signaling that China's business conditions are presently robust, but they lag the credit and money measures. The most reliable leading (forward looking) indicators of Chinese business cycle…

Highlights Despite a tightening in Chinese monetary conditions, dollar bloc currencies have continued to rally. Rising global reserves and strong carry inflows into EM prompted by low global financial volatility have created plentiful…

Highlights A number forward-looking indicators for EM corporate profits point to a major deceleration in the next several months, and potentially a contraction early next year. The most reliable forward-looking indicators for EM EPS…

Feature Turkey's banking system has in recent years relied on enormous liquidity provisions by the central bank (Chart I-1) to sustain its ongoing credit boom, and hence economic growth. Since early this year, the authorities have…

Highlights To shed light on the dichotomies that have surfaced in China's money and credit variables, we have calculated a new credit-money. This new measure is currently corroborating a very downbeat outlook for Chinese growth…

Highlights EM growth is set to falter due to budding weakness in Asia's trade, a decline in commodities prices, and the frailty of EM banking systems. U.S./DM bond yields are heading higher for now and China's money/credit…

Highlights EM equity breadth has moved into negative territory, DM-based excess liquidity measures are set to roll-over, and China-based liquidity measures are also weak. Individually, each of these factors are not enough to raise…