Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. All of the Monitors are now below the zero line, indicating a growing need to ease global monetary policy (Chart of the Week).…
Highlights A unified push among central banks to drop their currencies inevitably leads to lower interest rates, which eventually sows the seeds of a recovery. However, with prospects of a full-blown trade war in front view,…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rates by 50bps yesterday, stunning investors who expected only a 25bp cut. That took the Official Cash Rate to a record low of 1%, perilously close to the zero interest rate bound…
Since 2015, the cross has been trading into the apex of a tight wedge formation, defined by higher lows and lower highs. From a technical standpoint, the break above the 50-day moving average is bullish, suggesting the cross…
Highlights It remains too early to put on fresh pro-cyclical trades, but the Federal Reserve’s dovish shift is a positive development at the margin. As the market fights a tug of war between weak fundamentals and easier monetary…
Highlights Central bankers appear to be in a rush to boost inflation expectations before the next economic downturn. This in practice should be stimulative for the global economy. Historically, currencies of small, open economies are…
Highlights Duration: A growing list of leading global growth indicators are either climbing or are in the process of bottoming. This is putting a floor under global bond yields, as signaled by our new GFIS Duration Indicator. Maintain…
For starters, over the past five years or so, whenever this cross has broken below the 1.04 support level, going long proved to be a profitable strategy over the ensuing 6-to-12 months. Meanwhile, over the last 35 years, the…