Highlights Most currency pairs continue to trade toward the apex of tight wedge formations. History suggests major breakouts could be imminent. While the trade-weighted dollar has historically tended to be the best performing…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. All of our country Monitors are now forecasting monetary policy on hold, apart from Australia and New Zealand where looser policy is…
For the second time in 25 years, Canadian policy rates fell in line with New Zealand’s. This last happened from 1998 to 1999, when NZD/CAD subsequently depreciated 26%. However, today Canada’s and New Zealand’s…
Highlights A sooner-than-anticipated end to the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet runoff should give a welcome boost to international liquidity conditions. Moreover, reflationary efforts in China, cautious global central banks,…
According to the Riskbank Resources Utilization Indicator, the Swedish economy is at full capacity, pointing toward growing inflationary pressure. In fact, inflation is already at target, yet real rates are deeply negative and the…
Highlights We always strive to develop new analytical methods to complement our focus on judging currencies based on global liquidity conditions and the business cycle. This week, we introduce a ranking method based strictly on…
Highlights Dear Client, This is the final Global Fixed Income Strategy report for 2018. We will return with our first report of the new year on January 8th, 2019. Our entire team wishes you a very happy holiday season and a prosperous…
Dear Client, Early next week, we will be sending you our BCA Outlook 2019 - our annual dialogue with the bearishly inclined Mr. X and his family. In this report, BCA editors will highlight the most impactful themes for the global…
Highlights Global Yields: Global bond yields appear to be settling into a new trading range, with the downside limited by tight labor markets but the upside capped by slowing global growth momentum. 2014/15 Redux?: The domestic U.S.…