Dear client, Next week, in lieu of our weekly report, I will be hosting a webcast on Thursday, March 25 at 10:00 am EDT and Friday March 26 at 9:00 am HKT. I look forward to your comments and questions during the webcast. Best regards…

Highlights A rise in global bond yields has rarely been a reliable precursor of a stronger dollar. This is because the dollar reacts to interest-rate differentials, rather than the level of global yields. Changes in the dollar…

Highlights For the month of February, our trading model recommends shorting the US dollar versus the euro and Swiss franc. While we agree a barbell strategy makes sense, we would rather hold the yen and the Scandinavian currencies.…

Highlights A blue wave will likely supercharge the dollar’s downtrend in 2021. The key beneficiaries of this decline will be the much undervalued Scandinavian currencies, as well as those of commodity-producing countries. The…

Special Report

Highlights The dollar has entered a multi-year decline. However, in the very near term, we are at risk of a tactical bounce, which should be in the order of 2%-4%. Eventually, the DXY should hit 80 in 2021. This will lift the euro…

Highlights Oil prices are up strongly from their lows, but conditions for a durable bottom may not yet be in place. The main hiccup is that an air pocket will likely remain under global oil demand until most social-distancing measures…

Highlights The correlation between oil and petrocurrencies has shifted in recent years. It no longer makes sense going long petrocurrencies versus the US dollar blindly. One of the reasons has been the impressive and prominent output…

Highlights The correlation between oil and petrocurrencies has deeply weakened in recent years. One of the reasons has been the prominence of new, important producers, notably the U.S. Oil prices should trend towards $75/bbl by year-…