Our Commodity & Energy Strategy colleagues’ once-out-of-consensus call on crude oil prices – i.e., benchmark Brent prices averaging $94/bbl in 2H23 and trading above $100/bbl by December – now is the…
We continue to expect Brent crude to trade just above $101/bbl in 4Q23, and to average $118/bbl in 2024. Higher volatility looms. We expect Russia will cut oil production next year as part of a concerted effort to undermine Biden’s…
China’s reopening faltered and now it is applying moderate stimulus. OPEC 2.0’s production discipline is getting results, with oil prices climbing. The Fed will not be able to deliver dovish surprises in Q4 2023. Investors should…
Brent crude closed above $90/bbl on Tuesday for the first time since November. The rally comes after key OPEC+ members extended production curbs until the end of the year. Saudi Arabia reported that its 1mm b/d of output cuts…
The geopolitical backdrop remains negative despite some marginally less negative news. China’s stimulus is not yet large or fast enough to prevent a market riot. Two of our preferred equity regions, ASEAN and Europe, are struggling…
2023 is shaping up as a record-breaking year for global oil demand, according to our colleagues BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy (CES). By year end, they expect the world will be consuming a record 103.5mm b/d, an…
We continue to expect China to deploy stronger fiscal and monetary stimulus to avoid prolonged deflation brought about by a liquidity trap and sub-zero growth. All the same, a lower-growth risk has been added to our ensemble forecast…
The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy services, Russia is likely to cut oil production to pressure the West as a part of its war effort. This cut would push oil prices to…