Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
CCP officials are discussing policy options for breaking out of a deepening liquidity trap. Anything policymakers come up with will be additive to existing spending and to the multi-trillion-dollar fiscal-stimulus packages being…
China’s victory in getting KSA and Iran to restore diplomatic relations is of far greater consequence to commodity markets than the past weeks’ bank failures in the US. For China, further success in sorting long-standing security…
Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.
China’s housing market adjustment will be protracted, causing several years of sub-par growth in the world’s second largest economy. We go through the major investment implications.
The rebound in growth is pushing up inflation. More aggressive monetary policy is likely to trigger recession over the next 12 months or so. Investors should stay defensive.
Two developments this week reinforce our key views for 2023. First, Russia’s threat to reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, while escalating the war in Ukraine, confirms that geopolitical risk will rebound and new oil…