Executive Summary Further GDP Weakness Would Push Brent Lower  Markets remain alert for indications of what Russia will do next. Last week, President Vladimir Putin threatened “catastrophic consequences” if G7…

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of the year and beyond.

Executive Summary There has never been a modern era recession or sharp slowdown in which the oil price did not collapse. In a recession, the massive destruction of oil demand always overwhelms a tight supply. Across the last six…

Executive Summary Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas  Major geopolitical shocks tend to coincide with bear markets, so the market is getting closer to pricing this year’s bad news. But investors are not out of the woods…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Higher Real Yields Have Weighed On Equity Valuations  I had the pleasure of visiting clients in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Abu Dhabi last week.…

Dear Client, Next Friday we will publish a Special Report on Gold in conjunction with our colleagues in BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange and Global Investment strategy groups.  We will return to our regular schedule of…

Executive Summary Natural Gas Markets Eerily Quiet  An eerie calm in European natural gas markets belies the state of war in Ukraine that already is producing a cutoff of Russian natgas supplies in retaliation for the EU…

Executive Summary Crude Oil Prices Will Remain High  The EU embargo on Russian seaborne oil imports will tighten global crude oil and refined-product markets further.  Pipeline imports are due to phase out by year-end.…

Executive Summary EU Embargoes Russian Oil  The EU imposed an embargo on 90% of Russian oil imports, which will provoke retaliation. Russia will squeeze Europe’s economy ahead of critical negotiations over the coming 6-…

Listen to a short summary of this report.       Executive Summary Recession Checklist  US stocks were down almost 20% at their lowest point in May. Any lower and they would be pricing in recession.…