Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The US Inflation Surprise Index Has Rolled Over Global equities are nearing a bottom and will rally over the coming months as…
Executive Summary Loss Of Russian Production Will Lift Brent With German imports of Russian oil close to 10% of its total requirements – following an impressive decline from 35% pre-invasion – we expect the EU to…
Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator Russia and Germany have begun cutting off each other’s energy in a major escalation of strategic tensions. The odds of Finland and Sweden joining NATO have shot up. A halt…
Executive Summary Using the real yield on inflation protected bonds as a gauge of the long-term real interest rate is possibly the biggest mistake in finance. The ultra-low real yield on inflation protected bonds captures nothing more…
Executive Summary Brent Stable As Demand + Supply Fall Oil demand growth will slow this year and next by 1.6mm b/d and 1mm b/d, respectively. These expectations are in line with sharp downgrades in World Bank and IMF…
Executive Summary The Ukraine war reinforces our key view that commodity producers will use their geopolitical leverage this year. The market is growing complacent again about Russian risks. Iran is part of the same dynamic. If US-…
Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds Macroeconomic Outlook: Global growth will reaccelerate in the second half of this year provided a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached. Inflation will temporarily come…
Executive Summary Europe Is Russia's Key Gas Customer Full-on rationing of natural gas by Germany took a step closer to reality, as the standoff with Russia over its insistence on being paid in roubles for gas plays out.…