Executive Summary Nuclear Worries Take Center Stage  Vladimir Putin has now committed himself to orchestrating a regime change in Kyiv. Anything less would be seen as a defeat for him. Assuming he succeeds, and it is far…

Executive Summary Wars Don’t Usually Affect Markets For Long  We expect the war in Ukraine to stay within its borders, and therefore to have little impact on global growth. Markets will be volatile, but we recommend…

Executive Summary Risk Premium Abates, But Does Not Disappear  The risk premium in crude oil and natural gas prices is abating, and we expect that to continue. In the immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion, Brent…

Special Report

Executive Summary From Nixon-Mao To Putin-Xi  The geopolitical “big picture” of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the deepening of the Russo-Chinese strategic partnership. While Russia’s economic and…

Special Report

Executive Summary EU-Russia Energy Trade To Persist  Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent it from becoming a defense partner of the US and its allies. It is not likely to attack NATO members, which share a mutual defense treaty…

Special Report

Executive Summary Earnings Growth Outpacing Multiple Expansion  The US Energy sector is in a good place right now: Rising demand and faltering supply from OPEC 2.0 translate into a price of oil anchored at around $80 to $85…

Executive Summary Oil-Price Risk Skewed Upward  The $10-$15/bbl risk premium in Brent prices will dissipate over the next month. Russia's best outcome is to follow the off-ramp offered by the US. President Biden'…

Highlights Our top five “black swan” risks for 2022: Social unrest in China; Russian invasion of all of Ukraine; unilateral Israeli strikes on Iran; a cyber attack that goes kinetic; and a failure of OPEC 2.0. Too early…

Highlights The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait – the OPEC 2.0 states capable of increasing production this year – will have to step up for coalition members unable to lift output, including Russia.…