Highlights The neutral rate of interest in the US is 3%-to-4% in nominal terms or 1%-to-2% in real terms, which is substantially higher than the Fed believes and the market is discounting. The end of the household deleveraging cycle,…
Highlights Data from the UK revealed it is tantalizingly close to declaring COVID-19 an endemic virus, indicating Britain likely will exit the pandemic ahead of other states soon. The UK is a bellwether market regarding its public-…
Highlights Industrial commodity and ag markets will continue to pull widely followed inflation gauges higher, as global fuel and fertilizer prices remain well bid (Chart of the Week). Unplanned production outages in Libya, faltering…
Following the conclusion of its joint ministerial meeting on Tuesday, the OPEC oil producers coalition agreed to increase crude oil output by another 400 thousand barrels per day in February. The decision to raise production…
Dear Client, This week we present our annual Commodities & Energy Strategy outlook, which contains our key views on the principal markets we cover – energy, base metals and bulks, precious metals, and ags. Over the…
Highlights Our three strategic themes over the long run: (1) great power rivalry (2) hypo-globalization (3) populism and nationalism. The implications are inflationary over the long run. Nations that gear up for potential conflict and…
Highlights Tight commodity markets, rising incomes, and constrained logistics networks will continue to push inflation gauges higher, so long as coronavirus mutations don't cause another global economic shutdown. Commodity price…
Oil prices have been on a wild ride over the past couple of months. The energy crisis rally that had pushed Brent prices up by 15.6% in September and October lost steam in November as investors speculated that the Biden…
BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy services expects Brent to average $80/bbl and $81/bbl in 2022 and 2023, respectively. However, upside price risk is increasing due to inadequate capex. The team expects OPEC…
Dear Client, We had an error in our oil balances/forecasts report from 18 November 2021 resulting from a double counting of select US onshore production figures. This has been corrected below. Highlights Higher oil production…