Highlights Extremely accommodative fiscal policy and a rapid pace of vaccination puts the US on track to close its output gap by the end of the year. The situation is different in Europe, and the euro area economy will likely continue…
Highlights Biden’s policy on China is hawkish so far, as expected, but temporary improvement is possible. We are cyclically bearish on the dollar but are taking a neutral tactical stance as the greenback’s bounce could go…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, brent prices will average $60/bbl to $80/bbl to 2025. This is largely due to OPEC 2.0's production-management efforts on the supply side, and a…
Highlights We are lowering our expectation for oil-demand growth this year, bringing it more in line with levels expected by OPEC, the IEA and EIA. Our GDP-driven demand estimates have proven too bullish for 1Q21, considering the…
BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service is lowering its expectation for oil-demand growth this year, bringing it more in line with levels expected by OPEC, the IEA and EIA. Nevertheless, the team’s…
Highlights The recent backup in bond yields could cause stocks to fall further in the near term. However, history suggests that as long as yields remain low in absolute terms, as they are now, equities will recover. Market angst that…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the oil market’s supply-demand fundamentals are unlikely to experience a prolonged dislocation despite the inclement weather engulfing the US…
Highlights Both the US and Iran have the intention and capability of restoring the 2015 nuclear deal so investors should presume that an escalation in tensions will conclude with a new arrangement by August this year. However, the…
Highlights Transitory dislocations – i.e., supply and demand disruptions in the wake of the Polar Vortex engulfing the US midcontinent – are wreaking havoc on spot oil markets; however, they will not profoundly alter longer…