Oil’s 9-day rally paused on Thursday as monthly updates from the IEA and OPEC indicated a less optimistic outlook for global oil markets. Both organizations reduced their demand forecasts for this year, with the IEA …
Highlights For the month of February, our trading model recommends shorting the US dollar versus the euro and Swiss franc. While we agree a barbell strategy makes sense, we would rather hold the yen and the Scandinavian currencies.…
The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag. A great example of these…
Highlights Pandemic uncertainty and global economic policy uncertainty likely will rebound with increasing COVID-19 infection, hospitalization and death rates, which will keep the USD well bid as a safe haven, and continue to stymie…
Highlights Rising commodity prices and a weaker dollar will lead to higher inflation at the consumer level beginning this year. In the real economy, tighter commodity fundamentals – restrained supply growth, increasing demand,…
Highlights Markets largely ignored the uproar at the US Capitol on January 6 because the transfer of power was not in question. Democratic control over the Senate, after two upsets in the Georgia runoff, is the bigger signal. US…
Highlights OPEC 2.0 output will fall 850k b/d, following a surprise production cut of 1mm b/d by Saudi Arabia announced after two days of OPEC 2.0 meetings. Russia and Kazakhstan will be allowed to increase production by…
Highlights With a vaccine already rolling out in the UK and soon in the US, investors have reason to be optimistic about next year. Government bond yields are rising, cyclical equities are outperforming defensives, international stocks…