Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for 2021 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on Thursday, December…
In a previous Insight, we made reference to “Dr. Petrol” and noted that she was advising cautious optimism towards the US economy. “Dr. Petrol” was an allusion to “Dr. Copper”, a common and…
BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service recently presented that their 2021-25 forecast for Brent oil prices is $65-$70/bbl. The need for fiscal and monetary stimulus over the next five years will fade slowly…
BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service increased its estimate of oil-demand destruction this year. However, their price expectation for 2021 Brent remains at $65/bbl, in response to continued supply…
Copper has withstood the COVID-19 shock much better than Brent despite the strong cyclicality of both natural resources. The long-term outlook is likely to favor copper: a move away from carbon-intensive energy production will…
Highlights Does it still make sense to use historical yield betas for fixed income country allocation? Yes, favoring countries with higher government bond yield betas when global yields are falling, and vice versa, is still an…
Highlights Global GDP growth estimates from the OECD point to a stronger recovery in oil demand than markets are pricing in at present (Chart of the Week). Our forecast for Brent remains at $46/bbl for 2H20 and $65/bbl on average…
BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service concludes that OPEC 2.0 will be the oil market’s driving force over the coming years, as long as it can maintain its discipline. COVID-19 caused immense demand…
Highlights If it can maintain production discipline over the next 2-3 years, OPEC 2.0 will be the oil market’s most important determinant of price levels for years. The massive increase in OPEC 2.0 spare capacity resulting from…
Highlights Oil-price volatility will remain subdued as markets correctly downgrade measurable risks on the supply side and upgrade financial conditions supporting demand (Chart of the Week). OPEC 2.0’s spare capacity – ~…