Highlights Higher OPEC 2.0 production in 2H20 – likely beginning in 3Q20 – will be required to keep Brent prices below $50/bbl going into the US presidential elections, which arguably is the primary driver of prices in the…
Yesterday, BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service examined the outlook for the demand for industrial metals. Prices for base metals likely will continue to rebound from the collapse in GDP caused by…
Highlights Base metals are rebounding faster than oil in 2Q20, reflecting China’s first-in-first-out recovery from the global GDP hit caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (Chart of the Week). By 3Q20, the rebound in oil markets could…
Yesterday, BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service alerted investors that they should be ready for a case of déjà vu as Cushing approaches crude storage limits. WTI futures contracts delivering into…
Highlights Even as a net oil importer, China loses more than it gains when oil prices collapse. An oil price collapse generates a formidable deflationary force, which will further depress China’s industrial pricing power and…
Highlights Real Yield Curve: Last week’s negative oil print could signal the peak in deflationary sentiment for this cycle. It’s a good time for bond investors to enter real yield curve steepeners. Buy a short-maturity real…
Highlights The collapse in oil prices supercharges the geopolitical risks stemming from the global pandemic and recession. Low oil prices should discourage petro-states from waging war, but Iran may be an important exception. Russian…
Dear Client, Please join me and my fellow BCA Strategists Caroline Miller and Arthur Budaghyan for a live webcast tomorrow, Friday, April 24 at 8:00 AM EDT (1:00 PM BST, 2:00 PM CEST, 8:00 PM HKT) where we will discuss the outlook…
The supply response to lower oil prices has begun. Saudi Arabia is getting ready to cut production toward the 8 million bpd level, but also US shale production has begun to slow. The monthly change in production might already be…
The oil market remains incredibly unsettled. While the May WTI contract rebounded from a low of $-40/bbl on Monday, the June contract is now quickly weakening as well, falling near $13/bbl. Brent too, which is not as affected by…