Yesterday, WTI crude oil delivered to Cushing in May 2020 traded below $0.00/bbl. This is a historical print. What we are observing is the last of the May 2020 futures longs getting out of their positions before the contract…
WTI crude oil delivered to Cushing in May 2020 is trading below $0.00/bbl as this note is typed, and falling fast (Chart 1). This is an historical print. WTI for June delivery is trading at ~ $22.00/bbl. What we are observing is the…
Yesterday, BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service revised its demand forecast, with an estimate of COVID-19-induced demand destruction in Q2 of this year to now be 14.6mm b/d. In the short-term, WTI prices may…
Highlights The May-June WTI spread settled earlier in the week at a $7.29/bbl contango, the widest level since February 2009 during the GFC. This reflects an extraordinarily tight storage market in the US Gulf and Midcontinent. WTI for…
Highlights Stay tactically neutral to equities. The market may meet some short-term resistance, especially as a slew of poor earnings are released in the coming weeks. The long-term threat to equities comes from the pandemic’s…
Highlights Oil prices are up strongly from their lows, but conditions for a durable bottom may not yet be in place. The main hiccup is that an air pocket will likely remain under global oil demand until most social-distancing measures…
The oil market is oversupplied, the OPEC deal is still flimsy, and demand is still fragile as the global economy remains weak. This picture is obviously an ugly one for the oil market. However, we posit that the price of oil…
News flow over the past two days suggests the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Russia and America – a budding OPEC 3.0 – will do a deal to cut global crude-oil production to reduce the massive builds in global crude and…
Highlights Recommended Allocation The outlook for markets over the next few months is highly uncertain. On the optimistic side, new COVID-19 cases are probably close to peaking (for now), and so equities could continue to…
Yesterday, BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service concluded that oil prices could first fall further and then take off higher. Without a concerted effort by OPEC 2.0 – the coalition led by KSA and Russia…