Crude oil fundamentals continue to favor higher prices. We continue to expect demand to grow 1.4mm b/d this year. For 2021, we expect growth of just under 1.5mm b/d, reaching 103.65mm b/d globally. For its part, the EIA is…
Highlights The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in China is now being priced into commodity markets, with comparisons to the 2003 SARS outbreak serving as an early benchmark.1 If it follows the SARS trajectory its impact likely will be…
The biggest risk for oil prices is the possibility of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though this is a low-probability event for the moment, as was discussed in Friday's Insight. Risks to oil demand remain firmly tilted…
The US economy is less vulnerable to spikes in oil prices than in the past. US oil output reached as high as 12.9 mm b/d in 2019, allowing the country to become a net exporter of oil for the first time in history. Any increase in…
Highlights Duration: Despite recent setbacks, global growth looks set to improve and policy uncertainty set to ease during the next couple of months. Both will conspire to push bond yields higher. Investors should maintain below-…
Highlights Remain short the DXY index. The key risk to this view is a US-led rebound in global growth, or a pickup in US inflation that tilts the Federal Reserve to a relatively more hawkish bias. Stay long a petrocurrency basket. The…
In the immediate aftermath of the Soleimani assassination, the oil market’s attention was drawn to the ever-present threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Some 20% of global oil supply transits the strait daily.…
Highlights Iran responded with missile attacks on Iraqi military bases hosting US troops in retaliation for the assassination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force. The post-attack messaging from Iran and the US…
Highlights Stock markets begin 2020 with fragile short-term fractal structures, which means there is a two in three chance of a tactical reversal. The bond yield impulse is now a strong headwind, which reliably predicts that bond…