Highlights Geopolitical risks are starting to abate as a result of material constraints influencing policymakers. China needs to ensure its economy bottoms and a debt-deflationary tendency does not take hold. President Trump needs to…
The price differential at which Canadian heavy-sour crude trades to the North American benchmark WTI will be pushed to -$20/bbl into 1Q20, as transportation constraints continue to slow the marginal barrel’s egress from Alberta.…
Highlights European and global growth will rebound in the fourth quarter but the rebound will lack longevity. Bonds: Expect bond yields to edge modestly higher, especially for those yields that are deeply in negative territory.…
Highlights The global manufacturing cycle is likely to bottom soon, and consumption and services remain robust. The risk of recession over the next 12 months is low. This suggests that equities will continue to outperform bonds. But…
High-Conviction Overweight The recent drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil processing and production facilities have re-concentrated investors’ minds on reassessing geopolitical risk premia in the crude oil market…
Overweight S&P oil & gas exploration & production (E&P) stocks have closely tracked crude oil prices, but recently a wide gap has opened and we reckon that it will likely narrow via a catch up phase in the…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Firming relative profit prospects, rising likelihood of an oil price spike and higher geopolitical risk premia, bombed out valuations and extremely oversold technicals all signal that an…
According to KSA officials, repairs to the damaged 7-million-barrel-per-day processing facility at Abqaiq will mostly be completed by month-end. Relative to last month, we are not changing our price forecasts much, with Brent…
Energy Stocks Are Heading North Banks Clamoring For Higher Rates And A More Hawkish Fed Homebuilding Stocks Are Catching Up To Housing Starts Will Global Trade Get “Fed-Exed”? Do Not Try To Bottom Fish……