In our balances estimates, we show OPEC producing 29.8mm b/d of crude oil on average this year, and 29.7mm b/d next year. This is down sharply from the 32mm b/d we estimate the Cartel produced last year, which included a surge in…
For 2019, a grouping of negative demand-side effects have proven to be strong – uncertainty spawned by the Sino-U.S. trade-war, tightening financial conditions globally, and the strong USD. As a result, we have been forced…
Hard-to-predict policy risks and trade-war uncertainty will continue to hinder oil-demand growth, as will USD strength. The cost of oil in local-currency terms remains close to highs not seen since Brent and WTI traded above $100/bbl in…
While price levels have been hammered lower by trade policy uncertainty and global growth fears, the Brent and WTI forward curves remain backwardated. This normally indicates market tightness – i.e., refiners are willing to…
How important is the potential thawing of the Sino-U.S. trade war to oil markets? On a scale of 1 – 10, this goes up to 11 (Chart of the Week). Brent’s and WTI’s one-day rally of ~ 5% on Tuesday, followed by a 4.…
The next few months will provide important information to markets and policymakers alike, as both wait to see whether the concerted monetary policy efforts aimed at reviving the real economy – manufacturing, in particular…
Much like the rest of the global economy, oil markets await the lift in demand that fiscal and monetary stimulus have delivered in the past. As the debate among BCA Research’s strategists demonstrated, this is not a given.…
U.S. shale oil is filling a market need for light-sweet crude and condensate, and is attracting investment to meet this need. It does compete with light-sweet OPEC production ex Persian Gulf, but investment in these countries has…
On the supply side, we continue to expect OPEC 2.0’s production strategy to be driven by its primary goal – i.e., reducing global oil inventories. This means the coalition will continue to exercise production…
Oil price volatility will remain elevated, as markets transition from a pronounced demand slowdown in 1H19, which is apparent in actual consumption data, to stronger growth. We expect global fiscal and monetary accommodation will…