Highlights Investors ran for cover in December as they succumbed to a litany of worries regarding the outlook. The key question is whether the pessimism is overdone or an extended equity bear market is underway. Our outlook for the U.…
Dear Client, This will be the last Global Investment Strategy report of 2018. Publication will resume on January 4th. On behalf of the entire Global Investment Strategy team, I would like to wish you a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays,…
While the Trump Administration’s flip-flop on the Iranian sanctions has injected extreme volatility into oil prices, some semblance of normality has returned to the crude oil markets as last week OPEC and Russia agreed to a…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The drubbing in the S&P semi equipment index is overdone and even a modest improvement on either the trade policy, industry demand or currency fronts could result in a reflex rebound, warranting an…
Highlights So What? Global divergence will persist beyond the near term. Why? China’s stimulus will be disappointing unless things get much worse. U.S.-China trade war will reignite and strategic tensions will continue.…
… quick’s the word and sharp’s the action. Jack Aubrey1 Idiosyncratic supply-demand adjustments – some induced by head-spinning reversals of policy (e.g., the U.S. about-face on Iran oil export sanctions)…
Highlights Our take on the key macro drivers of financial markets hasn’t evolved much since we laid it out this summer, … : Monetary policy is still accommodative; lenders are ready, willing and able; and the expansion…
News reports suggest OPEC 2.0 could re-instate its original production-management accord agreed in November 2016, under which 1.8mm b/d of output was taken off the market. Nonetheless, we continue to expect cuts to come in on…
The good news is that the balance sheets of U.S. energy companies have improved markedly over the past few years. Rapid productivity gains have allowed shale producers to boost production to record levels without having to incur…