Highlights President Trump is a prisoner of his own mercantilist rhetoric - there is more trade tension and volatility to come; China's depreciation of the RMB can go further - and will elicit more punitive measures from Trump;…
Highlights The not-so-veiled threat to Gulf Arab oil shipments through the critically important Strait of Hormuz by Iran's President Rouhani earlier this week was a response to the ramping up of maximum pressure by the Trump…
Highlights May's soft durable goods orders report is probably not a precursor of weaker capex. Despite shortages of inventory and rising rates, housing should add to GDP growth this year and next, and keep economic growth well…
Highlights Macro Outlook: Global growth is decelerating and the composition of that growth is shifting back towards the United States. Policy backdrop: The specter of trade wars represents a real and immediate threat to risk assets.…
Highlights We have been cautious on asset allocation on a tactical (3-month) horizon for two months. The backdrop has deteriorated enough that we believe that caution is now warranted beyond a tactical horizon. Trim exposure to global…
Highlights Oil markets are on tenterhooks, as unplanned outages; continued losses in Venezuela's output; pipeline bottlenecks in the U.S. shales; and a higher likelihood of sharper losses of Iranian exports are priced into global…
Highlights Short oil and gas versus financials. Stick with underweights in the classically cyclical sectors. Downgrade the FTSE100 to neutral. Overweight France, Ireland, Switzerland and Denmark. Underweight Italy, Spain, Sweden…
Highlights Neither the weakness in emerging market economies nor political turmoil in Europe are likely to significantly affect the U.S. economy. Although the U.S. economy is increasingly service-oriented, financial markets have…