China's underlying final demand for crude and oil products (excluding changes in inventories) has been weaker than is suggested by its imports of crude oil. The government has used lower oil prices to accumulate strategic petroleum…
The reflation rally continues. Despite our bearish outlook for the year, we think the risks of the current rally lie to the upside given China's redoubling of stimulus at the expense of reform. Populist troubles are picking up in…
China's reflation policies have succeeded in reviving iron ore and steel prices, which are up 45.6% and 52.6% from their January lows, along with the profitability of domestic steelmakers.
Saudi oil policy, like its defense policy, will be more aggressive and less predictable, following Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's apparent nullification of a production "freeze" deal at Doha.
A weaker USD resulting from more dovish forward guidance from the Fed, and evidence of continued production declines in non-OPEC and OPEC countries will continue to buoy oil prices.
These general themes - along with our assessment that markets were overestimating downside price risk and underestimating upside risks arising from supply destruction and geopolitical instability - supported the best-performing…
While the post-GFC linkage between oil prices and medium-term inflation expectations evident in the 5-year/5-year (5y5y) CPI swaps market will continue to be debated for years to come, this is an empirical fact that will affect…