Our reinstated long XOP / short GDX pair trade hit its rolling 10% stop intraday yesterday, forcing us to crystalize 32% gains in just over a month. While our original thesis for this pair trade that was outlined in the April…
Our reinstated long S&P oil & gas exploration & production (E&P)/short global gold miners pair trade is up again near the 20% mark. This parabolic rise compels us to re-institute a 10% rolling stop in order to…
Yesterday our 10% rolling stop got triggered on the long S&P oil & gas exploration & production (E&P)/short global gold miners pair trade. We are compelled to reinstate this intra-commodity pair trade, despite…
Highlights WTI futures contracts delivering into Cushing, Oklahoma, in June could trade or go off the board below $0.00/bbl next month, just as the May contracts did this month, when they changed hands at a low of -$40.32/bbl last week…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy We remain comfortable with a 3,000 SPX fair value estimate backed up by our DDM, forward ERP and sensitivity analyses. The path of least resistance remains higher for the SPX on a 9-12 month cyclical time…
The price differential at which Canadian heavy-sour crude trades to the North American benchmark WTI will be pushed to -$20/bbl into 1Q20, as transportation constraints continue to slow the marginal barrel’s egress from Alberta.…
Overweight S&P oil & gas exploration & production (E&P) stocks have closely tracked crude oil prices, but recently a wide gap has opened and we reckon that it will likely narrow via a catch up phase in the…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Firming relative profit prospects, rising likelihood of an oil price spike and higher geopolitical risk premia, bombed out valuations and extremely oversold technicals all signal that an…
Last Thursday we were stopped out from our tactical S&P semi equipment underweight position as it hit our -7% stop loss (bottom panel). We are obeying the stop loss and are returning this index to a neutral weighting as…
Oil price volatility will remain elevated, as markets transition from a pronounced demand slowdown in 1H19, which is apparent in actual consumption data, to stronger growth. We expect global fiscal and monetary accommodation will…