Highlights Entering 2H21, oil and metals' price volatility will rise as inventories are drawn down to cover physical supply deficits brought about by the re-opening of major economies ex-China. As demand increases and oil and…
Iran held its presidential election on June 20. Islamic cleric and regime hardliner Ebrahim Raisi won the election as expected, with 62% of the vote. Voter turnout fell from 70% in 2017 to 49% this year, as Iranian liberals…
Highlights Oil demand expectations remain high. Realized demand continues to disappoint. This means OPEC 2.0's production-management strategy – i.e., keeping the level of supply below demand – will continue to dictate…
Highlights Political and corporate climate activism will increase the cost of developing the resources required to produce and deliver energy going forward – e.g., oil and gas wells; pipelines; copper mines, and refineries. Over…
Highlights Global oil markets will remain balanced this year with OPEC 2.0's production-management strategy geared toward maintaining the level of supply just below demand. This will keep inventories on a downward trajectory,…
Highlights US natural gas prices will remain well supported over the April-October injection season, as the global economic expansion gains traction, particularly in Europe, which also is refilling depleted storage levels. China's…
Highlights Biden’s first 100 days are characterized by a liberal spend-and-tax agenda unseen since the 1960s. It is not a “bait and switch,” however. Voters do not care about deficits and debt. At least not for now.…
Highlights Geopolitical risk is rising once again after a big drop-off in risk during the pandemic and snapback. The Biden administration faces three critical foreign policy tests: China/Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Iran.…
Highlights Stronger global growth in the wake of continued and expected fiscal and monetary stimulus, and progress against COVID-19 are boosting oil demand assumptions by the major data suppliers for this year. We lifted our…
Highlights Continued upgrades to global economic growth – most recently by the IMF this week –will support higher natgas prices. In our estimation, gas for delivery at Henry Hub, LA, in the coming withdrawal season (…