Policy
Swiss National Bank will have to resort to negative interest rates and FX intervention before year-end. Swiss inflation fell to 0% year-over-year in April, or the lower end of the SNB’s 0%-2% target range, and the continued strength in the Swiss Franc…
Our European strategists are upgrading the communication services sector to overweight on a structural investment horizon. In March, they highlighted the sector's near-term attractiveness. Since the Great Financial Crisis, the European telecom…
Canadian Inflation: The Tree That Hides The Forest
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Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate target by 25bps to 3.85%, as widely expected. After this cut, the market still prices in about 50bps of easing over the next six months. According to our Global Fixed-Income strategists,…
Banxico’s 50 bps rate cut reinforces our bullish view on Mexican bonds, with easing likely to continue as inflation falls and growth slows. The central bank unanimously lowered its policy rate to 8.5%, and we expect further cuts ahead as Mexico heads toward a…
The US-China trade truce lifted short-term manufacturing sentiment in May, but margin pressures persist, reinforcing the case for defensive, domestic-focused equity positioning. The Empire and Philly Fed regional manufacturing surveys delivered a split signal…
Tariff front-running behavior makes the April hard economic data difficult to interpret, but we take the strong reading from Food Services spending as a signal that the US consumer has not yet buckled.
Expect broad-based dovish surprises from major central banks, and stay overweight UK and euro area government bonds. Our Global Fixed Income, European, and FX strategists published a joint update of BCA’s Central Bank Monitors. They expect the Bank of…
A weakening economy will apply downward pressure to Treasury yields, but the Trump term premium will keep long-dated yields higher than they would otherwise be. This makes Treasury curve steepeners the most attractive trade in US fixed income.
The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.