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Policy

Mainstream EM Will Disappoint In H1
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, domestic demand and corporate profits will disappoint across mainstream Emerging Market economies (excluding China, India, Korea, and Taiwan) in H1 2024. Retail sales volume growth has been…
Daily Insights
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2024 Key Views: Will EM Cross The Rubicon?

The major question facing EM investors in 2024 is whether or not EM will cross the Rubicon. The path to a soft landing in the US remains elusive. The recent improvement in global manufacturing/trade will likely prove to be a mid-cycle bounce rather than the beginning of a cyclical recovery.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Weak UK Economic Data Reflects Impact Of Previous Tightening
Weaker-than-anticipated economic data caused a sharp decline in UK gilt yields over the past few days with the 10 year yield now at its lowest since May.   The weakness in economic data was broad-based across various sectors of the UK economy. In the…
Daily Insights
Financial Markets Cheer Dovish Fed Press Conference
As expected, the Fed kept the policy rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range on Friday. Although the statement continued to indicate that the Fed is prepared to tighten further, it also acknowledged that there has been a slowdown in economic growth and that…
Daily Insights
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The Fed Pivot Is On For 2024

Our US bond team’s thoughts on this afternoon’s FOMC meeting and yesterday’s CPI release.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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2024 Key Views: Chimerica In Trouble, Part 2

Our 2024 outlook can be encapsulated into just 39 words and three key views. Key view 1: The end of China’s housing boom means the end of the world’s main growth engine. Key view 2: If the Fed and ECB don’t kill the economy, they won’t kill inflation. Key view 3: The AI gold rush will struggle to find any gold. We go through the investment implications for the year ahead.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Disinflation Trend Will Continue In 2024
The November US CPI release came in broadly in line with consensus expectations on Tuesday. On an annual basis, headline CPI inflation eased from 3.2% y/y to 3.1% y/y while core inflation was unchanged at 4.0% y/y. On a monthly basis, both headline and core…
Daily Insights
Rate Cut Expectations Boost German Investor Morale
The continued improvement in German investor morale captured by the ZEW survey corroborates other indicators pointing to near-term support for Eurozone stocks. Economic sentiment jumped three points to a 9-month high of 12.8 in December, surprising…
Daily Insights
Deflationary Pressures Linger In China
China’s CPI and PPI releases delivered a negative signal about the domestic economy. The rate of contraction in the CPI index accelerated to -0.5% y/y in November, the sharpest rate of decline in 3 years and disappointing expectations it would remain at -0.2%…
Daily Insights
Elevated Inflation Uncertainty Will Keep Policymakers Cautious
Results of the New York Fed’s November Survey of Consumer Expectations corroborate the signal from the University of Michigan’s preliminary results that inflation expectations are receding. The 0.2 percentage point drop in one-year ahead inflation…
Daily Insights

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