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Policy

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The Midwest: The Pivot Of US History

President Biden is facing foreign challenges on three fronts and these challenges are coalescing around the critical states of the Midwest. Take risks off the table and stay defensive in 2024.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
US LEI Continues To Signal Recession Ahead
The US Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) continues to send a poor signal about the economic outlook. The monthly pace of contraction quickened to -0.8% m/m in October from -0.7% m/m in September. In terms of the drivers of the monthly…
Daily Insights
Waiting For The Optimal Opportunity To Turn Defensive
The soft-landing narrative is gaining momentum, pushing equities higher and potentially offering investors a better entry point to position against it. Financial markets appear to have been surprised by the comforting inflation picture painted by the…
Daily Insights
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The Soft-Landing Narrative Gathers Steam

The soft-landing narrative has gotten nowhere at BCA but appears to be making some headway with broker-dealers and investors. We are preparing to lean against it once it pushes equity prices a little higher.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
A Lasting Improvement In Global Sentiment?
Global market sentiment has improved notably since late-October. In the equity space, DM and EM stocks have gained 8.5% and 7.8% respectively since October 26. Regarding currencies, the counter-cyclical DXY index has lost 2.2% so far in November. And as we…
Daily Insights
Maintain A Neutral Allocation To TIPS For Now
BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service continues to recommend a neutral allocation to TIPS for now, but with a bias to turn underweight. The team calculates a forecasted range for headline CPI inflation of 0.9% to 2.9% over the next 12 months. For core…
Daily Insights
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Carry Trades And The Coming Curse From Volatility

In this report, we evaluate the risk to carry trades in the coming months.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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Watch Taiwan, Not US-China, For Détente

Investors should not get their hopes up about the Biden-Xi summit. Wait to see if a new ruling party is elected in Taiwan before downgrading geopolitical risk in the Taiwan Strait. US-China strategic détente is possible but neither the geopolitics nor the macro backdrop warrant a risk-on position next year.

Geopolitical Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken
US Continuing Claims Climb To Nearly 2-Year High
US jobless claims have been trending higher in recent weeks, confirming that labor market conditions are deteriorating. Initial claims came in slightly above consensus estimates on Thursday, increasing by 231 thousand versus expectations of a 220 thousand…
Daily Insights
US Retail Sales Contract In October
The US retail sales release delivered a mixed signal about US consumption. Although the headline figure contracted by 0.1% m/m in October, it was better than expectations of a 0.3% m/m decline. Moreover, the September increase was revised up from 0.7% m/m to…
Daily Insights

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