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Policy

China: Heed The Signal From Positive Data Surprises?
On the surface, the acceleration in Chinese retail sales and industrial production growth in October suggests that the economy is holding up. Retail sales expanded by 7.6% y/y last month – beating expectations of 7.0% y/y following a 5.5% y/y increase in…
Daily Insights
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Fade The Rebound
The New York Fed's Empire Manufacturing Index unexpectedly returned to positive territory in November, climbing 14 points to its highest level since April. The headline index suggests that manufacturing activity is expanding in New York State – a positive…
Daily Insights
China's Impossible Trinity
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Chinese policymakers are facing the Impossible Trinity. When faced with rapid currency depreciation in August-September, the PBoC deliberately tightened liquidity and steered interest rates…
Daily Insights
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A Plausible Path Back To 2% Inflation: Revisiting Our TIPS Golden Rule

This week’s Special report revisits our TIPS Golden Rule. We provide a 12-month inflation forecast and discuss how it impacts our TIPS view.

US Bond Strategy by Robert Timper
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The ‘Hidden’ World Recession Of 2022 And Why It Matters Today

The latest ‘nowcast’ for world economic growth in the fourth quarter has plunged to just 1.2 percent, marking the cusp of another world recession. One important implication is that expectations for oil demand growth and industrial metal demand growth are way too optimistic.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
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Beware Of China’s Stealth Liquidity Tightening

Many commentators have attributed the latest increase in Chinese interest rates to an improving economy, the large issuance of government bonds, the tax payments season, and other technical factors. Yet, these explanations are missing the key point: the PBoC has steered interbank rates higher to defend the currency. Higher borrowing costs are the last thing the mainland economy now needs.

Emerging Markets Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Soft US Inflation Cements The Fed's Pause
US Treasury yields fell sharply following yesterday’s soft October CPI report, and investors have now officially priced out all remaining rate hikes from the yield curve. In fact, the fed funds futures curve is priced for a 25 basis point rate cut by next…
Daily Insights
Stay Long 10-Year German Bunds Vs Short 10-Year JGBs
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service remains long 10-year German bunds vs short 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) as a tactical trade. This trade mirrors the team's two highest conviction strategic views in government bond space,…
Daily Insights
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The End Of Fed Tightening Is Now Consensus

Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI print and the bond market’s reaction.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Clarity (A GeoRisk Update)

Amid a range of geopolitical narratives, what matters is that the US strategy of economic engagement with its rivals is failing, giving rise to a new strategy of containment that will reinforce the secular rise in geopolitical risk. Our market-based quantitative indicators of geopolitical risk are set to rise in the coming year.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken

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