The collapse in soft data points to rising recession risks, but markets are still only priced for a mild slowdown, reinforcing our defensive positioning. As policy uncertainty and market volatility surged, consumers and businesses…
The policy-induced decline in consumer confidence has spread to businesses and investors, increasing the probability of a recession even if the administration reverses field on its aggressive tariff measures. We reiterate our…
Europe’s deflation problem is getting harder to ignore. This week’s ECB cut is just the beginning — tariffs, the euro’s rally, and softening demand all point to more easing ahead. We explain what it means for yields, equities, and…
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks yesterday were in-line with our base case expectation that the Fed will not cut rates proactively in the face of rising tariff-driven inflation.
After seven consecutive cuts brought policy into neutral territory, the BoC held its deposit rate at 2.75% reinforcing our neutral-to-negative stance on Canadian government bonds. With policy now within the 2.25%-3.25% neutral range…
Our Global Investment Strategists remain defensive, expecting a global recession in the coming months unless the trade war de-escalates meaningfully. They maintain a year-end S&P 500 target of 4450, with downside risk to 4200.…
The US dollar’s reserve status is not done, but its foundations are starting to crack. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Juan Correa, Chief Global Asset Allocation Strategist. Most defensive currencies, like the yen and the Swiss…