Policy
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the EU carbon tax – aka Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – launched Sunday will lead to higher inflation in the medium term (3-5 years out). If enacted, the CBAM will collect…
As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate at 5.5% on Wednesday, keeping policy unchanged for the third consecutive meeting. The press release underscored that while monetary policy is weighing on economic activity and easing…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends a barbelled allocation across the Treasury curve. The Treasury curve bear-steepened in September. The 2-year/10-year Treasury slope steepened 32 bps on the month and currently sits at -43 bps. The…
There is a connection between the bond market meltdown and Republican Party’s meltdown. Investors should expect more short-term financial market volatility as a result of the triple whammy of high bond yields, high oil prices, and a strong dollar.
We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus: airlines, soybeans, and tin are all good rebound candidates based on their collapsed short-term complexities.
The Australian dollar was among the worst performing major currencies on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month. In her post meeting statement, newly appointed Governor Michele Bullock noted…
The Citi US Inflation Surprise Index has risen over the past two months after having bottomed at a three-year low in July. The good news is that the level of the index remains negative after having first fallen below zero in April – meaning inflation data is…
We present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2023.
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for oil prices, Fed policy, and the global economy. On the outlook for crude oil, a larger share of respondents expect the price of oil to end the…
Within alternatives, BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service favors Private Credit since yields are in double-digits and lenders are in a strong negotiating position. Private Credit (Overweight): Considering the current trend of extremely…