Policy
Japanese real GDP grew at an annualized pace of 6% year-on-year in Q2. Reading the tea leaves from the release, public investment rose by 5% quarter-on-quarter annualized, while residential investment jumped by a whopping 7.7%. The big takeaway, however, was…
The selloff in US Treasuries has accelerated in recent weeks and the 10-year US Treasury yield is quickly approaching the cyclical peak of 4.25% that was set last October. While momentum is certainly on the side of the bond bears, our US Bond team doesn’t see…
On Monday, Asia Pacific equity markets closed in the red due to the news that China’s largest real estate developer, Country Garden, is suspending the trading of some of its bonds. This recent episode is a continuation of Chinese economic woes, which our…
In a recently published report, BCA’s Bank Credit Analyst service reviewed the BCA Valuation Index, alongside three other US equity indicators which are published in Section III of each month’s report. The other indices included in our suite of equity…
Inspired by a client’s questions, we examine the rationale behind the implementation of the trailing stop governing our near-term asset allocation recommendations.
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey shows US households’ 1-year ahead inflation expectations unexpectedly ticked down from 3.4% to 3.3% in August, surprising consensus estimates of an increase to 3.5%. Similarly,…
While the July US CPI release provided a positive signal that the disinflationary trend remains intact, a key question going forward is how much more scope is there for this process to run. One way to answer this question is by assessing the progress in…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the gap that has formed between the S&P 500 price and its operating profit margins, as well as the divergence between the S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio and the 30-year TIPS yield are…
Numerous divergences have opened up between global risk assets and global business cycle variables. These gaps are unsustainable, and odds are that the recoupling will occur to the downside with risk assets selling off.
On Wednesday, President Joe Biden announced that a new ban on some US investment into China’s quantum computing, advanced chips and artificial intelligence sectors will come into force next year. This latest escalation is consistent with our Geopolitical…