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Policy

China: Implications Of US Tech Ban
On Wednesday, President Joe Biden announced that a new ban on some US investment into China’s quantum computing, advanced chips and artificial intelligence sectors will come into force next year. This latest escalation is consistent with our Geopolitical…
Daily Insights
Return Scenarios For Holding US Treasurys Are Asymmetrical
The rise in bond yields over the past few weeks has made some investors wonder whether US Treasurys and other government bonds really are a good hedge against recession. Could there be an environment in which the economy goes into recession but bond yields…
Daily Insights
Hedging Fiscal Dominance With Gold
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, gold’s appeal as a safe haven and store of value will increase as fiscal dominance overtakes monetary dominance at the Fed. Fitch’s downgrade of US debt from AAA to AA+ hit markets as the…
Daily Insights
Disinflation Trend Intact

Some thoughts on this morning’s inflation number and implications for Treasury yields and TIPS.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
The Death Of T.I.N.A.: Income Edition
During the last economic expansion, a structurally overweight allocation to stocks was at least partially warranted by the idea that “There Is No Alternative” – or “T.I.N.A.” During the last expansion, very accommodative monetary policy significantly reduced…
Daily Insights
Not Immaculate (GeoRisk Update)

The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta assets.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Inflation Risk Not Yet Extinguished From The US Economy
The US NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index increased by 0.9 points to an eight-month high of 91.9, beating expectations of a more muted 0.3-point increase. Although the level remains depressed below the 49-year average of 98, the trend is positive: the July…
Daily Insights
Is Good News Bad News?
Over the past two months, risk sentiment has improved amid receding fears of an imminent US recession. Economic data have been generating strong upside surprises and the US equity rally has broadened with cyclicals outperforming defensives since the beginning…
Daily Insights
Peak UK Interest Rates Are Finally On The Horizon

Time is running out on the Bank of England’s tightening cycle. UK economic growth is flirting with recession, unemployment is rising, house prices are contracting and inflation is decelerating. Markets are overestimating the eventual bottom in UK inflation, and thus are also underestimating how much the Bank of England will eventually cut rates in the next easing cycle, which could begin as soon as H1/2024. The backdrop is turning increasingly positive for Gilts on a medium-term basis, while the overbought pound is due for a breather.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Beware The Specter Of Inflation Making A Comeback
Core inflation in the US should drift lower in the coming months. However, it is too early to conclude that the US is completely out of the woods when it comes to inflation. Given that the US job market remains tight, and the economy remains resilient, it…
Daily Insights

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