Policy

The conventional economic thinking about the likely impact of AI is misguided because it extrapolates linearly from what AI can do today to what it can do tomorrow. Just as the investment community and the broader public were blindsided by the exponential rise in Covid cases during the early days of the pandemic, they will be blindsided by how quickly AI transforms society and the economy.

The Turkish presidential election will go to a runoff in two weeks, but President Erdogan outperformed his opinion polls. His party, the incumbent AKP, won a majority in parliament. This outcome rewards Turkey’s inflationary policies and as such reinforces our underweight position in Turkish equities. By contrast, the Thai election reinforces our recommendation to stay overweight Southeast Asia relative to global equities.

A restrictive policy by the ECB and a weak manufacturing sector will create headwinds for European stocks this summer. How should investors position their portfolios in this context?

The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.

Erdogan will most likely lose the Turkish election but it could go onto a second round. A strong opposition majority in the assembly would justify a tactical overweight in Turkish equities on a relative basis. For now, go long Turkish equity volatility.

The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.