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Policy

BoE Holds, Signals Slower Easing Ahead
The Bank of England held its policy rate at 4.5%, with only one MPC member dissenting to cut 25 bps. The BoE signaled a slower pace of easing, as inflation remains elevated while global growth becomes increasingly uncertain. Like other DM central banks,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Turkey: Don’t Buy The Dip
After a period of relative stability and progress towards policy orthodoxy, politics are again haunting Turkish assets. President Erdogan jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a political rival from the opposition party gaining ground at the municipal level.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Politics Of... Mess Around And Find Out

In this Special Report, GeoMacro Strategist Marko Papic argues that the Trump administration is flirting with high risk / low reward. Triggering a recession may be the end goal of the White House, but borrowing costs are not declining as much as they ought to be while President Trump’s political capital is on thin ice. Most recessions are caused by a “murder weapon.” It is rare that this weapon can be holstered. This may be one of those times.

GeoMacro Strategy, Global Investment Strategy, US Political Strategy by Marko Papic
BoJ Holds, Remains On Watch For Global Headwinds
The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.50%, but maintained a hawkish bias, making it the only G10 central bank in a hiking cycle, as the hot labor market creates sustained domestic price pressures.  More rate increases are likely this year as…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Fed Remains In Wait-And-See Mode
The Federal Reserve held rates at 4.25%-to-4.5% as expected, and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. The FOMC remains comfortable waiting and assessing the impact of recent and upcoming policy changes. The dots reflected a more stagflationary…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Analysis Paralysis

The market reaction to this afternoon’s Fed meeting looks overdone. Investors could be in for a hawkish surprise when it becomes apparent that the Fed won’t ease policy into higher tariff-driven inflation prints.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
US Retail Sales Present A Mixed Picture
February US retail sales were mixed, with the headline number missing expectations at only 0.2% m/m. January’s reading was revised down to -1.2%. Core measures (excluding gas & autos) were roughly in line with estimates, but the control group saw a 1.0%…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Understanding Trump's Foreign Policy

Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
What Could Go Right?
Despite our Global Investment strategists’ bearish stance, their latest report reviews scenarios that could be bullish for equities. Our colleagues remain bearish on equities, expecting a US recession this year. However, several upside scenarios could…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Rising Inflation Expectations Will Keep The Fed On The Sidelines
The preliminary March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates, falling to 57.9 from 64.7. The decrease came from both the assessment of current conditions and expectations, with the latter falling almost 10 points. Measures of 1-year…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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