The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal…
Core PCE inflation was tame this morning, but with large tariffs looming we anticipate loftier inflation readings in the months ahead.
US January core new orders beat expectations, rising 0.8% m/m, an acceleration from 0.2% in December. This measure, which excludes defense and aircraft from capital goods, is used as a proxy for business investment. Core shipments…
The House of Representatives passed a Budget Resolution bill that adds $2.8tn to the deficit by 2034. Our Geopolitical strategists highlighted during our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting that the Senate is likely to modify it by…
European equities have outperformed the US so far in 2025, especially after Euro Area economic surprises started outperforming as the US is starting to disappoint. The current leadership change between US and European assets reflects…
German election results were roughly as expected, but Europe’s biggest economy suddenly just got more interesting. While the details of the governing coalition have yet to be finalized, Chancellor Merz has floated options to ease the…
Trump’s ceasefire talks are positive for Germany – and so was the German election result. But Trump’s tariffs will hit Germany soon. Investors should use near-term volatility to increase exposure to Germany.
This week’s report discusses the questions we were asked most frequently when we met with investors in the Midwest two weeks ago. We reiterate our pessimistic fundamental take and our neutral asset allocation recommendations.
The February Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index beat expectations, but retreated to 18.1 from last month’s lofty 44.3 reading. All activity subcomponents pulled back, except for delivery times. The Philly Fed index is volatile…
