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Policy

What Will Hold Trump Back?
In light of President Trump’s address to Congress and the ebb-and-flow of tariff announcements, our Geopolitical strategists assessed the constraints on the administration’s disruptive agenda. Trump’s ability to implement his agenda is strongest in early…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
USIS
Stirring The Pot
Please join Doug Peta, Chief US Investment Strategist and co-author of The Bank Credit Analyst, for a Webcast on Wednesday, March 5 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET).
The Bank Credit Analyst, US Investment Strategy Webcast
The Trade War Is On
The Trump administration launched its biggest trade action on Tuesday, levying 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, and an additional 10% to current tariffs on Chinese imports. Given its crucial role in US supply chains, Canadian energy only sees a 10%…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Keep An Eye On This Inflation Chart
Leading US growth indicators have slowed, with economic surprises now in negative territory. However, Monday’s ISM Manufacturing showed that while activity is slowing due to tariffs uncertainty, supply-side price pressures are increasing. Our Price…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
What Will Hold Trump Back?

Trump will pull back from the trade war when stocks approach bear market territory. He will not withdraw from NATO. Favor European stocks on fiscal policy.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Euro Area: Services Disinflation Remains Under Way
February flash inflation for the Eurozone was slightly hotter than expected but nonetheless declined, with both headline and core inflation falling 0.1% to 2.4% y/y and 2.6%, respectively. Services inflation also declined to 3.7% from 3.9%. While Europe…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Consumers See A Vibe Shift
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Juan Correa, from our Global Asset Allocation (GAA) strategy service. Juan highlights weakening US growth observed in the data lately.  We have seen a few growth slowdown episodes since 2022. Why is this time…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Geopolitics Month Ahead (Tariffs, Nukes, Two Sessions)

The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal support will surprise to the upside at the Two Sessions. But Trump's China policy will cause volatility. Now that the stock market is cracking, reinitiate defensive trades, such as long treasuries versus US stocks and long global defensives versus cyclicals.

Geopolitical Strategy by Jesse Anak Kuri
The Tariff Shock And The Fed’s Response

Core PCE inflation was tame this morning, but with large tariffs looming we anticipate loftier inflation readings in the months ahead.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
US: Fade Core Capital Goods Strength
US January core new orders beat expectations, rising 0.8% m/m, an acceleration from 0.2% in December. This measure, which excludes defense and aircraft from capital goods, is used as a proxy for business investment. Core shipments however decreased…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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