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Policy

What Will Hold Trump Back?

Trump will pull back from the trade war when stocks approach bear market territory. He will not withdraw from NATO. Favor European stocks on fiscal policy.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Euro Area: Services Disinflation Remains Under Way
February flash inflation for the Eurozone was slightly hotter than expected but nonetheless declined, with both headline and core inflation falling 0.1% to 2.4% y/y and 2.6%, respectively. Services inflation also declined to 3.7% from 3.9%. While Europe…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
US Consumers See A Vibe Shift
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Juan Correa, from our Global Asset Allocation (GAA) strategy service. Juan highlights weakening US growth observed in the data lately.  We have seen a few growth slowdown episodes since 2022. Why is this time…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Geopolitics Month Ahead (Tariffs, Nukes, Two Sessions)

The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal support will surprise to the upside at the Two Sessions. But Trump's China policy will cause volatility. Now that the stock market is cracking, reinitiate defensive trades, such as long treasuries versus US stocks and long global defensives versus cyclicals.

Geopolitical Strategy by Jesse Anak Kuri
The Tariff Shock And The Fed’s Response

Core PCE inflation was tame this morning, but with large tariffs looming we anticipate loftier inflation readings in the months ahead.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
US: Fade Core Capital Goods Strength
US January core new orders beat expectations, rising 0.8% m/m, an acceleration from 0.2% in December. This measure, which excludes defense and aircraft from capital goods, is used as a proxy for business investment. Core shipments however decreased…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Dissecting European Equities’ Outperformance
European equities have outperformed the US so far in 2025, especially after Euro Area economic surprises started outperforming as the US is starting to disappoint. The current leadership change between US and European assets reflects extremely one-sided…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
US Rates Focus Shifts From Fiscal To Growth
The House of Representatives passed a Budget Resolution bill that adds $2.8tn to the deficit by 2034. Our Geopolitical strategists highlighted during our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting that the Senate is likely to modify it by increasing tax cuts and…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
An Upside Risk For the Euro?
German election results were roughly as expected, but Europe’s biggest economy suddenly just got more interesting. While the details of the governing coalition have yet to be finalized, Chancellor Merz has floated options to ease the “debt brake”, which…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Germany's Shield Against Tariffs

Trump’s ceasefire talks are positive for Germany – and so was the German election result. But Trump’s tariffs will hit Germany soon. Investors should use near-term volatility to increase exposure to Germany.

Geopolitical Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken, Yushu Ma

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