Policy
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Marko Papic, Chief Strategist of our GeoMacro Strategy service. Marko has argued that the most important macro story over the past decade has been the transition from the Washington Consensus, promoting fiscal conservatism, to…
US Tariffs Will Rise On Day One (Or Week One)
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Chinese activity was decent in December, with GDP growth topping the 5% target for 2024. Industrial production growth ticked up to 6.2% y/y from 5.4% in November. Retail sales also picked up, increasing to 3.7% from 3.0% a month prior. New and used home…
We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model.
UK inflation surprised to the downside in December. Headline inflation retreated below estimates to 2.5% y/y from an eight-month high of 2.6% in November. Core inflation also decreased below estimates, printing 3.2% vs. 3.5% in November. Services inflation,…
China’s monetary and credit data was relatively strong. New yuan loans increased more than expected, as did aggregate financing. M2 met estimates at 7.3% y/y. As was the case for trade in December, seasonality plays a big role in China around the…
The preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates on Friday, driven by a cooling of consumer expectations. Worryingly, both the 1-year and 5-to-10 year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.3% from 2.8% and 3.0%,…
UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon?
Thoughts on the increase in bond yields and this morning’s employment data.
Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US military action across the Americas, and an internationally coordinated FX intervention.