As talks of a market “meltup” abound, we used last Friday’s edition of our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting to assess our asset allocation recommendations. Our House View has been underweight equities since…
Our Global Investment Strategy team examined the risk of a fiscal crisis amid rising global debt levels. Stabilizing the US debt-to-GDP ratio would require a nearly 4% GDP improvement in the primary budget balance at…
Executive Summary The US Needs To Reduce Its Primary Budget Deficit By Nearly 4% Of GDP To Stabilize Debt Rising government debt in the US has heightened the risk of a fiscal crisis. If interest rates stay where they are, the US primary…
Our China Investment Strategy team assessed the country’s outlook in a context of underwhelming stimulus and rising trade tensions. Trump’s re-election raises the likelihood of tariff hikes on Chinese exports…
Trump's presidential re-election makes US tariff rate hikes on Chinese exports an imminent threat. Beijing has made extensive efforts to derisk the domestic economy and diversify trade away from the US. However, China is no better…
According to the latest update of the Central Bank Monitors from BCA’s Global Fixed Income strategists, economic weakness and diminishing inflation pressures warrant a shift towards easier global monetary conditions. The…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2024.
Economic expectations for Germany and the Eurozone disappointed, with the November ZEW decreasing to 12.5 from 20.1. The assessment of current conditions also worsened, implying the sentiment rebound from September will not be…
The month of November has brought us S&P 6,000! President Trump has won a “Red Sweep” (as we expected all year) and has ushered in a regime change in America. For now, we are open to chasing momentum. However, the biggest risk to…