The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) held rates at 15%, guaranteeing a sharp growth slowdown and reinforcing our underweight stance on Brazilian equities versus EM. All Copom board members voted to maintain an ultra-hawkish policy…
The SARB cut rates by 25 bps to 7.00%; our EM strategists expect further easing and recommends short ZAR exposure. Real interest rates remain elevated, and high borrowing costs are intensifying debt sustainability concerns, with…
The Fed will keep rates on hold until the unemployment rate forces its hand.
The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive…
Jay Powell won’t be removed as Fed Chair before the expiry of his term next May, but we will learn the identity of his replacement this year, setting up a potentially awkward “shadow Fed Chair” situation.
We discuss the implications of this morning’s CPI report and the relative attractiveness of 2/5 Treasury curve steepeners.
With inflation at a six-year low and restrictive policy weighing on growth, our EM strategists remain long Indian bonds and underweight equities. Headline CPI fell to 2.1% y/y, largely driven by lower food prices, bringing inflation…