Our expectation that a looming US recession will morph into a global recession remains intact. US monetary easing will only take effect with a lag and current deteriorating economic conditions are the product of past…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Market Strategy service, the monetary and fiscal policies announced last week are unlikely to produce a meaningful business cycle recovery in China. Below are actions the authorities…
After resisting the consensus narrative in 2022 that a US recession was imminent, and then predicting an immaculate disinflation for 2023, the Global Investment Strategy team has joined the dark side and is now expecting a recession…
France’s and Spain’s preliminary September CPI readings declined on a month-on-month basis, clocking in at 1.5% and 1.7% y/y respectively, and undershooting consensus expectations. Germany’s and Italy’s…
Annual BEA data revisions resulted in a significant upward revision in GDP growth since Q2 2020, led by stronger consumption growth and more robust real disposable income growth than previously believed. Revisions also show…
We highlighted last week that while the Politburo policy announcements are unlikely to produce a meaningful business cycle recovery in China, they nevertheless administered a shot of adrenaline to investor sentiment. Chinese…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the surprise fiscal announcement from China’s Politburo is a very different animal from previous stimulus attempts. Although the details are still…
US nominal personal income growth decelerated to a 0.2% pace in August, from 0.3% in July, missing expectations that it would accelerate. Nominal personal spending also disappointed, growing at a slower 0.2% pace from 0.5%. In…
We consider the possibility that lower interest rates could lead to an increase in household borrowing, prolonging the economic recovery.
Our quant model shows Democrats winning the election at a 56% probability, with 303 electoral college votes. But swing state economies are slowing and Democrats’ odds in Michigan fell. Trump can win with Georgia, Michigan, plus one…