Trade data from small open economies act as a bellwether for global growth developments. In August, Korean exports expanded by 11.4% y/y in USD and 5.7% y/y in KRW terms, marking their eleventh and eighth consecutive month of…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation Strategy service, a common objection to buying Bitcoin raised by traditional investors is that it is too volatile. In the past it has been argued that this is irrelevant,…
We noted earlier this month that the Fed would be unlikely to deliver a jumbo rate cut without telegraphing it first. President Williams' and Governor Waller’s September 6 speeches offered policymakers one last chance…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the imbalances in the US economy are sizeable enough to generate a mild recession. Unfortunately for equity investors, a mild recession would not preclude a…
The US suffers from enough imbalances to produce a mild recession. Unfortunately, such a recession could lead to a significant bear market in stocks, just as it did during the very mild 2001 recession.
The ECB will cut rates once more this year; however, markets underprice how far it will ease next year.
ECB Governing Council members unanimously voted in favor of lowering the deposit facility rate by 25 bps to 3.50% in September, marking the second cut this year. Moreover, expectations for weaker domestic demand led the ECB to…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the Fed’s upcoming rate cut will temporarily alleviate some of the downward pressure on the RMB, but beyond the short term the USD will likely rebound in…
Some thoughts on this morning’s US claims report and a preview of next week’s FOMC meeting.