Policy

In this monthly review, we give our take on where bond yields and the dollar are headed. This is within the lens of revisiting our fundamental indicators.

The market backdrop changed a lot between the preparation and the publication of our equity downgrade report. We publish this companion Insight to help investors navigate the new environment.

GeoMacro team partners with BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy to examine political reforms in Argentina. Our colleague Juan Egaña argues that the time is not right to go long Argentinian assets and that Buenos Aires must avoid the mistakes of the Macri era: opening to foreign capital flows too soon without addressing structural macro imbalances. However, the Milei administration is on the right path with potentially global implications.

The decision by GeoMacro team on July 2 to short USDJPY and underweight equities has proven to be prescient. We still do not like the market setup from here on out. A recession would, obviously, be negative for risk assets. But even if investors avoid that scenario, the transition from cash- to leverage-driven growth is unlikely without a significant Fed rate-cutting cycle.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2024.

Mounting evidence that the labor market is on its way to cracking checked two more boxes on our checklist, driving us to tactically downgrade equities to underweight while upgrading fixed income to overweight. Our tactical and cyclical (6-12 months) views are now aligned as our conviction that a recession will begin before year-end has increased.