According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, it is time to increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark” on a 6-12 month horizon. Since February, our colleagues…
After this morning’s jobless claims number, we have now seen enough deterioration in our preferred labor market indicators to increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark”.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its policy rate by 25bps for the second meeting in a row on Wednesday. We highlighted in a recent Insight that the soft June inflation print and weakening labor market increased the odds of more…
We assign high odds that the US will tip into a recession by year-end or early 2025. Given it has been the largest driver of global demand in this cycle, a US recession will morph into a global downturn. The procyclical…
UK’s CPI growth stands right on the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target. However, services inflation remains sticky, growing at a constant 5.7% y/y in June. Moreover, the deceleration in wage growth remains insufficient…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the impact on global trade from another round of tariffs under a potential Trump administration is an emerging risk to Europe. The underperformance of…
The PBoC lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70% on Monday. The 5-year and 1-year loan prime rates declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.85% and 3.35%, respectively. However, this 10-bps cut is unlikely to…
As Trump’s victory odds rise, the underperformance of European equities deepens. How negative would a global trade war be for European assets?
It’s status quo for the SIFI banks, as they don’t see consumer credit performance materially worsening from now-normalized levels and they are not meaningfully exposed to commercial real estate losses.
We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength…