US CPI inflation continued to ease in May. Headline CPI stagnated on a month-on-month basis (3.3% y/y) in May, down from April’s 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y), and below expectations of a more muted rate of growth. Core CPI also…
The Bank of Japan exited negative interest rate policy in March, but subsequent softer-than-expected CPI inflation prints have complicated its path towards tightening. The central bank is widely expected to stay put when it meets…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, it is an overstatement to assert that China’s subsidies are the main driver of its green energy industries’ competitiveness. It is commonly…
The UK unemployment rate surprised to the upside in the 3-month period ending in April, ticking up to 4.4% against expectations it would remain stable at March’s originally reported 4.3%. Concurrently, wage growth remains…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the European parliamentary election was not an earthquake. It saw an improvement in right-leaning political groups and a deterioration in both centrist and left-…
Europe did not witness a major policy reversal. Inflationary pressures are coming down, enabling the ECB to cut rates and European states to maintain soft budgets. Geopolitical challenges ensure that European parties continue to…
The ECB is now firmly in easing mode, even if it refuses to pre-commit to a specific rate path. What does this data dependency mean for the euro and European yields?
Although the comprehensive economic surprise indexes continued weakening in May, the metrics in our equity downgrade checklist haven’t softened enough to check more boxes now. While we continue to expect the US economy will enter a…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Republicans are more likely to win the Senate than the White House – and more likely to win either of these than the House. But Republicans are favored in…
US Treasury yields bounced after this morning’s employment report. We offer our updated views about how long the recent trading range will hold.