The stock market will suffer a setback from the weakening labor market and a rebound in US and global policy uncertainty.
US headline CPI inflation decelerated to a softer-than-expected 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) in April, from 0.4% m/m (3.5% y/y). Core CPI eased from 0.4% m/m (3.5% y/y) to 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y). Declines in new (-0.4% m/m) and used…
Our updated views on Treasury yields and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report.
Despite historically high interest rates and the fact that variable-rate mortgage issuances dominate the mortgage market landscape, Australian home prices continue to climb at a close to double-digit annual rate. The Core Logic…
Chinese aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, declined on a YTD basis, from CNY 12.9tr to CNY 12.7tr in April, disappointing expectations that it would grow to CNY 13.9tr. Moreover, new loan growth missed expectations (…
The Bank of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey – a gauge of sentiment among business owners – disappointed in April. The Current Conditions and the Outlook indices deteriorated from 49.8 to 47.4 (20-month low) and…
The US Citi Economic Surprise Index has recently dipped below zero, indicating that US economic data releases have been disappointing expectations. Most notably, the ISM Services PMI started contracting in April against…
We marked the first X on our Equity Downgrade Checklist and the latest JOLTS, Employment Situation and SLOOS releases brought us closer to ticking some others. We remain tactically neutral on equities but expect that we will…