Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Policy

ISM Services PMI Contracts In April
The ISM Services PMI largely disappointed in April. The headline index fell to 49.4 from 51.4, below expectations of a faster pace of growth. April’s contraction ends a streak of 15 consecutive months of services-sector expansion. Two alternative…
Daily Insights
Better Data Could Boost EUR/USD In The Short-Term
The cyclical outlook is gloomy for EUR/USD. We subscribe to neither the soft-landing nor the no-landing view and expect a recession to occur in late 2024/early 2025. The pro-cyclical euro would suffer in a global downturn while a recession would support the…
Daily Insights
F_IMAGE_20240503_134844.PNG
The Trading Range Holds

Some thoughts on this morning’s employment report and recent trends in US economic data.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
f_image_20240503_130515.PNG
A Conversation With Ms. Mea: Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise

Mainland residents’ investments in gold, other metals, and Hong Kong-traded stocks are a form of capital outflow. Chinese authorities will counter any excessive capital flight with stricter administrative controls. Thus, markets benefiting from these flows will likely be hurt.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
f_image_20240502_191422.PNG
US Politics In May And June

Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
The Fed Downplays Rate Hikes
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged following its May FOMC meeting. It also announced it would slow the pace of quantitative tightening starting on June 1, from the current $60 billion per month to $25 billion per month for Treasuries redemptions, while…
Daily Insights
Will US And Euro Area Growth Converge?
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, US and Euro Area growth will likely converge in the next 12 months. Fiscal policy differences were the most visible headwind to Eurozone growth last year. The IMF estimates that the…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240501_182411.PNG
Not As Hawkish As Feared

Updated views on US Treasury yields and the dollar following today’s FOMC meeting.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Ryan Swift, Chester Ntonifor
F_IMAGE_20240501_102211.PNG
Europe Exorcises Its Inflation, The US Stays Haunted

Wild hopes for US rate cuts got shattered, exactly as we predicted. But given the different incentives that the Fed and ECB now face, the relative pricing between the Fed and the ECB could widen further in the coming months. We discuss the implications for rates, the dollar, and the relative positioning in US versus European equities.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Eurozone Inflation Remains Hot
Euro area inflation and GDP numbers were released on Tuesday. The preliminary harmonized core consumer price index came in at 0.7% on a month-on-month basis, a decrease from 1.1% in March. The preliminary year-on-year core CPI also decreased, clocking in at…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics