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Policy

EM Growth Will Remain Tepid
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, although certain Chinese industries and individual EM economies are growing briskly, overall EM growth will remain tepid, with risks skewed to the downside. The fiscal stimulus announced during…
Daily Insights
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State Of The Political Capital

The US Presidential election is eight months away. In this report, we will be looking at what is left of President Biden’s political capital and his room for actions in the next few months which may include market-negative actions such as the recently announced investigation into Apple.

US Political Strategy by Jesse Anak Kuri
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A Tug Of War

Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
BoE Pivot Requires Further Slowdown In UK Inflation
The UK CPI report showed inflation eased by more than anticipated in February. Headline CPI inflation dropped from 4.0% y/y to 3.4% y/y – below consensus estimates of 3.5% y/y and the weakest increase since September 2021. Similarly, the slowdown in core…
Daily Insights
Fed Still Anticipates Three Rate Cuts In 2024
There were no meaningful adjustments to the Fed’s communication on Wednesday. The post meeting statement was essentially unchanged with Chair Jay Powell noting that the risks to achieving the Fed’s goals are coming into better balance. Powell did…
Daily Insights
Chinese Housing Market: A Fourth Year Of Contraction?
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the adjustment in China’s real estate sector is not over. Odds are that the property market will contract for the fourth year in a row. The property market indicators continue to paint a grim…
Daily Insights
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March FOMC Quick Takes

Our takeaways from this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
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This Is Only The Beginning For The Bank Of Japan

The Bank of Japan delivered a historic policy adjustment this week, ending both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control. In this Insight, BCA’s global fixed income and currency strategists discuss the immediate implications of the move for Japanese bond yields and the yen, and the potential for additional tightening actions.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
BoJ: A One-And-Done Rate Hike?
The Bank of Japan pulled its policy rate out of negative territory with a 10-basis point rate hike on Tuesday that brings the BoJ’s overnight interest rate to a range of 0% to 0.1%, ending over a decade of ultra-accommodate monetary policy. The central bank…
Daily Insights
AUD Weakens On Removal Of RBA Hiking Bias
The Aussie dollar was among the worst performing G10 currencies on Tuesday on the back of a shift in tone in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s post-meeting statement. Specifically, the RBA replaced the hawkish bias that “a further increase in interest rates…
Daily Insights

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