According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, Australia’s macroeconomic environment validates a long AUD position, especially at the crosses. The market expects that the RBA will cut interest rates…
In this Insight, we revisit our long AUD trades, after the upgrade from our attractiveness ranking last week.
The US retail sales report for February delivered a disappointing signal on Thursday. Although retail sales returned to expansion, the 0.6% m/m increase fell below anticipations of a 0.8% m/m rise. In addition, the prior month…
Gold has had a stunning rally over the past few weeks, gaining 9.2% since February 14 and reaching consecutive all-time highs last week before paring back some of its gains. Indeed, the drivers of gold have moved in a bullish…
BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service ranks the major economies by their economic and financial performance under various categories. In the inflation category, the surprising top award goes to Italy, a country which…
The latest MBA weekly survey shows mortgage applications rose 7.1% in the week ending March 8 on the back of a 4.7% increase in purchases and a 12.2% rise in refinancing, marking the second consecutive weekly increase. Higher…
After briefly weakening in January, AUD/CAD has once again been moving higher over the past few weeks. Indeed, BCA’s Intermediate Term Technical Indicator is back to neutral from overbought territory, paving the way for…
The Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator remains at an elevated 0.154 versus its recession event horizon of 0.200, indicating weakening US labour demand. With the last mile of US disinflation requiring labour demand to ‘catch…
US headline CPI inflation accelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.4% m/m in February, in line with expectations. A rise in gasoline prices and shelter inflation accounted for 60% of this increase. Meanwhile, the annual rate of change in…
Although the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q1 have been trending lower, the latest 2.5% print (which is down from 3.4% a month ago) still suggests that economic conditions are resilient in the US. Yet small business owners are…