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Policy

South Africa: Headed For A Recession
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the South African economy is heading into a recession later this year. The South African government refrained from announcing any stimulus measures in its recent budget proposals. The fiscal plan for 2024-25…
Daily Insights
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Biden’s Still Alive, But Can He Kick?

Democrats are still slightly favored for reelection as the incumbent party is presiding over a growing economy. However, Biden’s strong showing in the primary election is not lifting his popular approval yet, and that is a worrying sign. Policy uncertainty should rise sharply, which is marginally negative for the stock market.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
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Month-In-Review: Changes In The FX Attractiveness Ranking

This week, we review our currency positions, based on the latest data from G10 economies.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Mexico: The Future Remains Bright
In the past couple of years, Mexico has been among the favorite markets for investors within the EM space. As our Emerging Markets Strategy team argued in a recent report, the cyclical and structural outlook for Mexican risk assets remains brighter than ever.…
Daily Insights
Greater Upside For Polish Equities Versus Other CE3 Bourses
A market-cap weighted index of CE3 economies (Poland, Hungary and Czechia) returned a whopping 64% in common currency terms since its 2022 low. Polish and Hungarian equities led the rally, advancing by a respective 86% and 78% in local currency terms…
Daily Insights
US January JOLTS Report: Persistent Resilience
The US January JOLTS data released yesterday was in line with expectations, with job openings clocking in at 8.86 million versus a downwardly-revised 8.89 million in December. Importantly, US job openings are likely to continue trending lower in February…
Daily Insights
The Bank Of Canada Remains On A Dovish Path
The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate steady at 5% for the sixth consecutive meeting yesterday, in line with expectations. The BoC, which has changed its communication policy to now provide a press conference after every meeting, reasserted the need…
Daily Insights
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Expected Inflation Surges, Just As Expected

Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered inflation. We discuss what this means for central banks in the US, UK, euro area, and Japan. Plus: bitcoin’s structural uptrend to $100,000+ is still intact.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The Fed Doesn't Need To Raise Rates To Cause A Large Hawkish Shock
We noted in a previous Insight that recent comments from Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, may reflect a growing realization among policymakers that they have inadvertently caused a significant easing in financial…
Daily Insights
China PMIs: Stabilizing
China’s NBS PMI release indicates that the Chinese growth is stabilizing at a low level. The composite PMI came in at 50.9 – unchanged from January. The stabilization was led by the non-manufacturing sector though both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing…
Daily Insights

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