US GDP growth for Q4 was revised lower from 3.3% to 3.2% annualized, driven by a downward revision to private inventory investments (now detracting 0.27 points from a previous 0.07 contribution to GDP). However, consumer spending…
Earlier this year it looked like the spread between the rate of 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes was heading toward positive territory. Yet the 2s/10s spread peaked at -16 bps on January 16 and the inversion has been deepening…
The US ‘immaculate disinflation’ has run its course, given that labour force participation is topping out. This leaves the Fed with a dilemma. Settle for price inflation stabilising at 3 percent, and cut rates early to avoid higher…
Japan’s CPI inflation dropped from 2.6% to 2.2% y/y in January. However, the sharp slowdown comes on the back of falling energy prices. Meanwhile, the BoJ’s core-core measure of underlying inflation (CPI excluding…
The first in a series of Strategy Insights where we present a checklist for extending duration in each major government bond market. This first entry focuses on the US.
The messaging from the minutes of the ECB’s January meeting was similar to the Fed. Although Governing Council members noted that “for the first time in many meetings, the risks to reaching the inflation target were…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, investors should take care not to read too much into the recent easing in financial conditions. According to Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (…
Clients have been pushing back on our recession call on the grounds that it is incompatible with the economy’s second-half acceleration and the more recent easing in financial conditions. We examine both of those points in the course…
Canada’s January CPI release shows price pressures cooling last month. Headline CPI eased to 2.9%y/y from 3.4%y/y in December, below expectations of 3.3%y/y. Furthermore, month-over-month inflation fell for the first time…
The minutes of the January FOMC meeting underscore that policymakers are adopting a cautious approach in timing the pivot to policy easing. Although Fed officials acknowledged that inflation and employment risks are “…